TLDR
- January is the ideal month to fix retention because of the fresh-start effect, Q4 buyers entering their second-purchase window, and dormant customers being more open to re-engagement.
- Campaign 1: Second Purchase Nudge targets recent first-time buyers (around days 10â21 post-purchase) with a four-step sequence: tease, small incentive, personalized recommendation, and final urgency-based reminder.
- Campaign 2: Win-Back Nudges targets dormant customers (90+ days inactive) with a four-step emotional and value-driven sequence: âWe miss you,â a welcome-back gift, rediscover favorites, and a last invitation framed as exclusive.
- Together, these automations create a retention safety netânudging Q4 first-time buyers into repeat customers and reactivating older segmentsâso every new customer acquired in 2026 becomes more valuable.
It is an unfortunate reality for many D2C brands: a significant portion of customers acquired last year made only a single purchase before fading away. If your strategy remains solely focused on acquisition, it is highly likely that this pattern will repeat.
As January arrives, the marketing landscape becomes saturated with "New Year, New You" campaigns centered on aggressive acquisition. While everyone else is focused on filling the top of the funnel, a critical cohort is often overlooked: the hundreds or thousands of customers currently in your database who bought from you once and never returned.
Youâve already invested a substantial budget to acquire these individuals. They didn't return the product, which shows a positive experience, yet they simply forgot your brand existed.Â
Starting the new year by chasing strangers while ignoring hard-won customers is a costly mistake.
The good news is that January offers a fresh start for your customers, too. People who went dormant in 2025 are now psychologically more receptive to re-engagement. Furthermore, your first-time buyers from the Q4 holiday rush are currently in the critical window for their second purchase.
Instead of only burning cash on new customer acquisition, you can establish two simple marketing automations this month that will consistently drive repeat purchases throughout the year. Letâs look at what they are:
Why January Is the Perfect Time to Fix Retention
We often treat January as a month solely for capturing new demand, but seasoned lifecycle marketers view it as the ideal time to build a retention foundation. The timing works in your favor for several key reasons.
- The Fresh Start Effect: This is a documented psychological phenomenon where people are more open to new habits and re-engaging with brands that align with their goals for the year.
- Q4 Buyers Are Ready: Your holiday and Black Friday customers are hitting the sweet spot for a second purchase. If you do not engage them now, they are likely to churn permanently.
- Dormant Customers Are Recoverable: Reaching out to a customer who has not bought in six months can feel awkward in November, but the New Year gives you a natural and non-intrusive reason to reconnect.
If you fix your retention structure now, every single customer you acquire in 2026 becomes more valuable because you are building a compounding asset rather than just running a temporary campaign.
Campaign 1: The Second Purchase Nudge
The Goal: Convert One-Time Buyers Into Repeat Customers
The drop-off between the first and second purchases is often where D2C brands lose the most value. Many customers buy once and enjoy the product, but simply lack the trigger to return. Data consistently shows that customers who make a second purchase are up to five times more likely to become loyal advocates. The main challenge is not the third or fourth buy, but rather the second one.
Second purchase nudge works well in January because your November and December buyers are currently 10 to 45 days post-purchase. Satisfaction is still high, but the initial excitement is fading. This is the critical window to nudge them before they forget you exist.
The Workflow: A 4-Part Automation Sequence
This sequence is designed to trigger based on the customer's purchase date.
- Day 10 (The Tease): Send a message with the subject "Your next fave is waiting." The goal here is to provide value without a hard sell. You can say that you have something perfect lined up based on their recent order to keep the momentum going.
- Day 14 (The Sweetener): Follow up with a message titled "Hey [Name], back for more?" You can introduce a modest incentive such as 10% off to sweeten their second pick. It is important to note that you do not need a massive discount here as a small gesture feels like appreciation rather than desperation.
- Day 18 (The Recommendation): Send a personalized email with the subject "Still thinking?" Use your data to suggest complementary products based on their first purchase rather than generic bestsellers.
- Day 21 (The Final Nudge): Close the sequence with a message about a bonus expiring soon. Creating genuine urgency helps close the loop for those who have been hesitating.
This campaign works effectively because it respects the customer's timeline. It reaches them when satisfaction is high rather than waiting for them to churn. When you personalize the recommendations, you prove that you understand their needs and turn a transaction into a relationship.
Campaign 2: Win-Back Nudges
The Goal: Recover Your Dormant Customers
A customer who has not engaged for more than 90 days is often considered churned. Most brands leave these customers in their database, where they pay for email storage while generating zero revenue. However, your dormant customers are not necessarily gone forever, as they are often just distracted. The New Year provides the perfect psychological reset button to win them back.
You likely have a database full of people who have not bought a product since early 2025. They are waiting for a reason to come back, and you can frame this campaign as an exclusive comeback offer for the new year.
The Workflow: Reactivating the Dormant
Trigger this flow when a customer hits the "Churn Threshold," which is usually 90 days since their last activity.
- Day 0 (Emotional Reconnection): Send an email with the subject "We miss you." The message should acknowledge the time apart and offer a substantive discount, such as 25% off, to help them restart their journey with you in 2026. This is the time for a strong offer because you are competing against apathy.
- Day 3 (The Welcome Back): Follow up with a "Welcome Back" gift. Remind them of the quality they experienced the first time to reinforce the value of your brand.
- Day 7 (The Rediscover Prompt): Use a subject line like "Your favorites are still here." Reference past positive experiences to trigger nostalgia and invite them to rediscover what they missed.
- Day 14 (The Final Invitation): Send a final invitation stating that you would love to have them back. Frame it as an exclusive invitation that is expiring to create a fear of missing out.
Win-back campaigns often fail because they are dry and transactional. This framework works because it combines emotional appeal with substantive value. It acknowledges the time gap and bridges it with a compelling reason to return.
How These Two Campaigns Work Together
Implementing just one of these campaigns is helpful, but implementing both creates a retention safety net. You can think of your customer lifecycle as a bucket where the Second Purchase Nudge patches the holes near the top, while the Win-Back Campaign catches the ones who managed to slip through the cracks.
When you set these up in January, you capture two massive groups immediately. You catch your Q4 buyers who are hitting the second purchase window right now, and you re-engage your 2025 dormant users who are excited for a New Year message. Once these automations are live, they run in the background for the next 12 months. Every new customer acquired in March, July, or October will automatically enter this retention engine.
Setting This Up in January
You do not need months of planning to build this retention engine. You can execute this in two weeks.
Week 1: Build the Second Purchase Nudge
Start by defining your segment of first-time buyers who have not purchased again in the last 10 days. Build the four-touch sequence and activate it so it immediately starts picking up your late-December buyers.
Week 2: Build the Win-Back Campaign
Before you set up the automation, run a one-time manual campaign to your entire database of customers who haven't bought in four months. You can use a subject line like "New Year, new us" and invite them to see what has changed. Once the manual blast is done, set up the evergreen flow for anyone who hits the 90-day inactivity mark going forward.
Wrapping Up
Most brands start the new year chasing new customers, but smart brands start by turning existing customers into repeat buyers and bringing back the ones who drifted away. These two campaigns are the difference between a leaking bucket and a sustainable growth engine.
January is uniquely perfect for both strategies. Your Q4 buyers are in the second purchase window, and your dormant customers are psychologically open to fresh starts. If you set these up now, they will work for you automatically for the next 12 months.
2026 does not have to be another year of one-time buyers. You have the list and the data, so now you just need to send the nudge.
Are you ready to amp up your sales in the new year? Book a demo with ZEPIC!
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is retention more important than acquisition?
Retention is consistently more cost-effective than acquisition. Studies show it costs 5â7x more to acquire a new customer than to retain an existing one.
Existing customers also tend to spend 67% more than new customers, and even a 5% increase in retention can drive a 25%â95% increase in profit margins.
Strong retention strategies create sustainable growth while maximizing the efficiency of your marketing spend.
What is the critical metric I should track for win-back and second-purchase nudge campaigns?
For Second Purchase Nudge campaigns, the most important metric is the Repeat Purchase Rate (RPR), which measures the percentage of customers who return for a second or subsequent purchase.
For Win-Back Campaigns, track the Customer Retention Rate (CRR) for the targeted dormant segment, along with the resulting increase in Customer Lifetime Value (CLV).
How do I calculate the Customer Retention Rate (CRR)?
The basic formula for calculating Customer Retention Rate over a specific period is:
[(E â N) / S] Ă 100 = CRR
Where:
⢠E = Number of customers at the end of the period
⢠N = Number of new customers acquired during the period
⢠S = Number of customers at the start of the period
The goal is to track how effectively your new campaigns are improving this rate over time.
Is a discount necessary to win back dormant customers?
Yes. For dormant customers (typically inactive for 90+ days), a strong incentive is usually required at the start of a win-back sequence.
You are competing against customer apathy and brand forgetfulness. A substantive offer (for example, 25% off) creates a clear, compelling reason for customers to re-engage and restart their journey with your brand.
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Desperate times call for desperate Google/Chat GPT searches, right? "Best Shopify apps for sales." "How to increase online sales fast." "AI tools for ecommerce growth."

Been there. Done that. Installed way too many apps.â¨
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But here's what nobody tells you while you're doom-scrolling through Shopify app reviews at 2 AMâthat magical online sales-boosting app you're searching for? It doesn't exist. Because if it did, Jeff Bezos would've bought (or built!) it yesterday, and we (fellow eCommerce store owners) would all be retired in Bali by now.â¨
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Growing a Shopify store and increasing online sales isnât easyâwe get it. While everyoneâs out chasing the next ârevolutionaryâ tool/trend (looking at you, DeepSeek), the real revenue drivers are probably hiding in plain sightâright there inside your customer data.
After working with Shopify stores like yours (shoutout to Cybele, who recovered almost 25% of their abandoned carts with WhatsApp automation), weâve cracked the code on what actually moves the needle.â¨
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Ready to stop app-hopping and start actually growing your sales by using what you already have? Here are four fixes that will get you there!
Fix #1: Convert abandoned carts instantly (Like, actually instantly)
The Painful Truth: You're probably losing about 70% of your potential sales to cart abandonment. That's not just a statisticâit's real money walking out of your digital door. And looking for yet another Shopify app for abandoned cart recovery isn't going to fix it if you're not getting the fundamentals right.
The Quick Fix: Everyone knows you need multi-channel recovery that hits the sweet spot between "Hey, did you forget something?" and "PLEASE COME BACK!" But here's the realityâmost recovery apps are a one-trick pony. They either do email OR WhatsApp, not both. And don't even get us started on personalizing offers based on cart valueâthat usually means toggling between three different dashboards while praying your apps talk to each other.
Enter ZEPIC: This is where we come in. With ZEPIC's automated Flows, you can:
Launch WhatsApp recovery messages (with 95% open rates!)
Set up perfectly timed email sequences (or vice versa)
Create personalized recovery offers not just on cart value but based on your customerâs behavior/preferences
Track and optimize everything from one dashboard

Fix #2: Reactivate past customers today
The Painful Truth: You're probably losing about 70% of your potential sales to cart abandonment. That's not just a statisticâit's real money walking out of your digital door. And looking for yet another Shopify app for abandoned cart recovery isn't going to fix it if you're not getting the fundamentals right.
The Quick Fix: Everyone knows you need multi-channel recovery that hits the sweet spot between "Hey, did you forget something?" and "PLEASE COME BACK!" But here's the realityâmost recovery apps are a one-trick pony. They either do email OR WhatsApp, not both. And don't even get us started on personalizing offers based on cart valueâthat usually means toggling between three different dashboards while praying your apps talk to each other.
Enter ZEPIC: This is where we come in. With ZEPIC's automated Flows, you can:
Launch WhatsApp recovery messages (with 95% open rates!)
Set up perfectly timed email sequences (or vice versa)
Create personalized recovery offers not just on cart value but based on your customerâs behavior/preferences
Track and optimize everything from one dashboard

Offering light at the end of the tunnel is Googleâs Privacy Sandbox which seeks to âcreate a thriving web ecosystem that is respectful of users and private by defaultâ. Like the name suggests, your Chrome browser will take the role of a âprivacy sandboxâ that holds all your data (visits, interests, actions etc) disclosing these to other websites and platforms only with your explicit permission. If not yet, we recommend testing your websites, audience relevance and advertising attribution with Chromeâs trial of the Privacy Sandbox.
Top 3 impacts of the third-party cookie phase-out
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Digital advertising and
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Lack of cookie data results in drastic fall in website traffic and conversion rate
Review all cookie-based audience acquisition. Sign up for Chromeâs trial of the Privacy Sandbox
Digital Customer Experience
Customers are not served relevant, personalised experiences: on the web, over social channels and communication media
Multiply efforts to collect first-party customer data. Implement a Customer Data Platform
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Increased scrutiny from regulators and questions from customers about data storage and usage
Review current cookie and communication consent management, ensure to align with latest privacy regulations