BFCM & Beyond: Holiday Shopping Trends 2025 with a Bonus Action Plan

Remember the good old days, when holiday shopping kicked off with Black Friday? 

You’d circle the date, set your alarms, and maybe even line up outside stores at dawn.

Fast forward to 2025, and that feels like almost ancient history. Today, the holiday shopping starts as early as June. Brands are turning cultural “mini holidays” like Summerween or Christmas in July into serious shopping events. 

‍"Black Friday no longer marks the beginning of the holiday retail season, as a growing number of shoppers and retailers are embracing what's being called Christmas in July."
-Kailyn Rhone of The New York Times

On the flip side, inflation, price hikes due to tariff changes, and other factors have made consumers conscious of their spending habits.

What does all of this mean for BFCM 2025?

Let’s find out about the major changes in holiday shopping this year and how you can build a game plan.

The Big Shifts in Holiday Shopping Behavior

Holiday shopping in 2025 is being shaped by five core trends: early shopping, the adoption of social commerce, hybrid shopping behavior, value-driven purchasing, and demographic/regional nuances.

The Early Holiday Shopping

This year, shoppers started thinking about holiday shopping as early as July. 

Hard to believe, right?

But that’s the truth. Research by Civic Sense shows that 20% of U.S. consumers had started holiday shopping by July 1st (up five points from 2024).

The increase in tariffs could’ve influenced this trend, as many U.S. shoppers anticipate rising gift prices as a direct result.

No matter the reason, brands should already begin their promotional efforts. 

“Brands should begin promotional campaigns in late summer or early fall at a minimum, to align with the consumer shopping timeline.”
-Brad Jashinsky, Director Analyst, Gartner Marketing Practice.

Social Commerce is all the Rage

Social platforms have officially transitioned from “inspiration channels” to checkout channels.

According to Bazaarvoice, 21% of shoppers bought holiday gifts directly on social platforms in 2025, up from 12% in 2024.

Moreover, 55% spent 11–50% of their holiday budget through social media, while 15% spent more than half.

TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram are leading the charge. 

The modern shopper discovers a brand, is influenced, and purchases a product within minutes, thanks to these social platforms.

For D2C brands, this means creator-led content, UGC, and shoppable posts are becoming the core growth levers.

Hybrid Shopping is on the rise

Not all shoppers prefer buying products with a click of a few buttons.

Some like the experience stores offer, and others want the best of both worlds.

A recent Gartner survey revealed that over 60% of U.S. holiday shoppers embrace hybrid shopping.

They buy online and pick up the product in-store, or they do extensive research online, reserve what they want to buy, and complete the final checkout at a physical store. 

“Value-First” Shopping & Early Deal Hunting

Shoppers are cautious in 2025. McKinsey’s Senior Partner Emily Reasor calls the consumer sentiment this year “timid,” with inflation and affordability shaping decisions. She also mentions,

“People are planning to spend roughly the same dollar amount as they have in the past—but they’re going to shift their spending toward needed goods as opposed to discretionary goods.”

Since many expect fewer discounts compared to past years, transparency and timing are even more critical. 

Instead of relying on campaigns that offer flashy discounts or gimmicks, brands need to highlight real value, whether that’s affordability, utility, or confidence.

• Value in essentials: Position products as practical and gift-worthy, not indulgent extras.
• Value in timing: Use messaging like “checkout today’s price” to appeal to inflation-conscious shoppers.
• Value in trust: Offer best-deal guarantees, flexible returns, and loyalty perks to reduce hesitation and increase confidence.

Generational Nuances Are More Pronounced

The studies conducted by various brands like Bazaarvoice, Gartner, eMarketer, and McKinsey also highlight the shift in shopper behavior based on age. Here’s what stood out to us:

Gen Z: Bazaarvoice reports that Gen Z is nearly twice as likely as boomers to shop via social commerce. They trust creator content, lean on TikTok and Instagram for inspiration, and don’t mind checking out directly on those platforms.‍

Millennials (globally): McKinsey notes they’re the cohort most likely to trade down, swapping premium products for lower-cost alternatives, stretching out shopping timelines, and actively seeking price guarantees.

Baby Boomers: Gartner found that 56% of Boomers are tightening budgets, with nearly half prioritizing free shipping (45%) over fast delivery (9%). One of the respondents of McKinsey’s consumer research stated that,‍

“I’ll be spending mostly on gift cards because I really can’t afford shipping costs for anything else.”

Many other consumers in this cohort share the same sentiment. 

Beyond the Holidays—Why Post-Season Strategy Matters

With more retailer days like Prime Day, Kohl’s day, and other big sales events gaining more popularity, you’d think people might spend less during the traditional holiday season. But it rather spreads the spending across the year. 

“With each holiday, we see retailers stretching out the sales and promotional calendar longer so that the marketing starts earlier. Even the big sales, like Prime Day, are lasting longer. That's not so much pulling money from other holidays as much as moving it around and spreading it out.”
-Sky Canaves
Behind the Numbers Podcast, eMarketer

Retailers are already planning gifting, merchandising, and promotions months before peak season. Holiday campaigns are also stretching well beyond November.

But there’s another angle that often gets overlooked: data.

Holiday sales bring in massive volumes of new traffic, first-time buyers, and browsing data. Every abandoned cart, product view, and sign-up is an opportunity to learn more about your customers. You need to consider how to leverage this data to refine the customer journey and ultimately drive conversions. Here are some ideas,

Refine targeting in January. Segment deal hunters vs. loyalists, and adjust retention flows accordingly.
Power lifecycle campaigns: Post-purchase surveys and gift-recipient tags fuel replenishment, loyalty nudges, and “treat yourself” campaigns.
Build long-term loyalty: A one-time holiday buyer can be turned into a year-round customer with personalized follow-ups and rewards.

In a nutshell, while holiday sales is a big opportunity, they also provide you with extensive data that can create a sustainable foundation for your future campaigns. 

Bonus Checklist: Your 30–60–90 Day Holiday Action Plan

With less than three months to go, here’s your airtight sprint plan:

Day 1–30: Foundation & Value Messaging

• Audit last year’s data and segment VIPs vs. deal-hunters
• Clean your lists and re-engage inactive subscribers
• Lock in offers, bundles, and best-deal guarantees
• Prep creative assets (gift guides, UGC content)
• Ensure tracking dashboards are ready

Day 31–60: Launch & Optimize

• Test automation flows (abandoned cart, win-back, post-purchase)
• Start early promos (“buy early, beat price hikes”)
• Launch shoppable TikTok/ Instagram content
• Segment gifters vs. self-treaters to personalize campaigns
• Confirm fulfillment SLAs and returns flexibility

Day 61–90: Peak & Post-Peak

• Scale cross-channel campaigns (email, WhatsApp, SMS, ads)
• Use urgency with reassurance (“best price locked in”)
• Maximize SMS/ WhatsApp opt-ins
• Collect post-purchase data and gifting info
• Draft retention flows for January

Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t look anything like it did a decade ago. Shoppers are starting earlier, buying on TikTok, toggling between online and offline, and making decisions through the lens of value and trust. 

For brands, this means two things:

You can’t wait until November. The season has already begun by summer, and those who show up late will miss the early spenders.

Holiday sales aren’t the end; they’re the beginning. Every click, cart, and purchase is data you can use to personalize, segment, and build loyalty into 2026.

The winners this year will be the brands that start early, market smarter, and treat BFCM not as a one-time event, but as a springboard for year-round growth.

At ZEPIC, we believe in Foundation over Frenzy—helping D2C marketers turn BFCM momentum into a data-driven engine for long-term revenue. Follow our “Foundation over Frenzy” series on LinkedIn or Instagram.

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